Paper Bitcoin Winter?
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Things are feeling a little quiet around here lately. Bitcoin’s price has been bumbling along between $109–$120k, and the fervent cries for ‘God candles’ and ‘supply shocks’ seem to have dissipated.
At least for the time being…
Perhaps most noticeable is the lack of noise coming from the Bitcoin Treasury Company brigade of late. Just a few months ago they were dominating every podcast, being covered in every news outlet, and Grok was working overtime writing mega threads for the perma-bullish influencers who were shilling them.
Everyone was ‘irresponsibly long’ and determined to make sure you knew about it.
Lately, however, things have grown eerily quiet amongst the Bitcoin treasury crowd. Is it because they all got fabulously wealthy and absconded to private islands? Or has the hype died down because being ‘irresponsibly long’ turned out to be just that—irresponsible?
Let’s explore how things have been going recently in the land of Paper Bitcoin…
Paper Bitcoin Summer
This cycle is eerily reminiscent of ones that came before, where buying something that looks a bit like Bitcoin, but isn’t, becomes the latest trend.
In 2013 it was altcoins, in 2017 it was ICOs, and in 2021 it was NFTs—each of them either claiming to compete with Bitcoin or somehow adjacent to it in some way. The common thread amongst all of them, of course, is that they aren’t Bitcoin and in no way are they similar.
There is no substitute for a Bitcoin UTXO.
In similar fashion, this cycle’s big trend has been aptly named ‘Paper Bitcoin Summer’. Instead of buying UTXOs, people have increasingly been putting their money into Bitcoin Treasury Company shares.
Their goal? To get ‘exposure’ to Bitcoin through traditional markets and, in some cases, attempt to outperform simply holding Bitcoin by betting on companies that can accumulate huge amounts of it by issuing cheap debt.
Mania around these ‘paper Bitcoin’ products took hold as people became sold on the idea that treasury companies had discovered a so-called “infinite money glitch.”
The companies start off by issuing low-cost equity or debt to raise capital to buy Bitcoin. As this Bitcoin appreciates in value, it increases the companies’ stock price and market cap. This increased valuation then makes it cheaper and easier for the company to raise even more capital to buy even more Bitcoin.
And from there on in, it’s just a case of ‘wash, rinse, and repeat.’
Inspired by Michael Saylor’s strategy, Bitcoin treasury companies began springing up everywhere. In Japan, MetaPlanet Inc started aggressively buying Bitcoin. In the UK, a web design agency called The Smarter Web Company jumped on the bandwagon too. And in the US, David Bailey’s KindlyMD and the Trump Media & Technology Group both entered the fray.
At the time of writing, there are now a total of 192 public companies holding, between them, over 1 million Bitcoin on their balance sheets according to bitcointreasuries.net.
So will this cycle differ from previous ones? Will the people buying ‘Paper Bitcoin’ stocks fare better than those in previous cycles who abandoned UTXOs in favour of the ‘next thing’? Or will they suffer the same fate as the ICO, shitcoin, and NFT holders who were left wishing they had just stuck with Bitcoin?
Only time will tell, but even the name itself—‘Paper Bitcoin Summer’—suggests that this trend could be short-lived. If previous cycles are anything to go by, this ‘infinite money glitch’ could turn out to be more finite than advertised.
Paper Bitcoin Winter
As autumn draws near, we find ourselves asking: is ‘Paper Bitcoin Summer’ over already? And if it is, what is ‘Paper Bitcoin Winter’ going to look like?
So far, things haven’t gotten off to a particularly good start. The reason things have become eerily quiet around this topic recently is that Bitcoin Treasury stocks haven’t been performing quite as well as the influx of new suitcoiners had first hoped.
A cursory glance at the performance of these companies suggests that the influencers pushing them might have been a little too bullish for their own good.
Let’s take a look at a handful of them:
KindlyMD
David Bailey’s $NAKA has seen dumps as aggressive as 50% in just one day and, since May, is down more than 96% since launching their Bitcoin treasury strategy! Had you invested $10,000 into $NAKA on May 22nd this year, your investment today would only be worth around $400.
Ouch!
Conversely, had you invested that $10,000 into Bitcoin on the same date, it would still be worth $9,780.
So much for ‘outperforming Bitcoin.’ David Bailey just cost a lot of people a lot of money.
The Smarter Web Company
The UK’s first mover in the Bitcoin Treasury race, a web design agency called The Smarter Web Company, hasn’t performed well for shareholders either.
Caught up in the treasury company hype and benefitting from the fact that people in the UK don’t have access to Bitcoin ETFs or ETNs, the company’s stock rocketed to a peak of $9 on June 20th.
The jubilation didn’t last long, however, as by late July the stock had crashed back down to $3 before grinding down even further throughout September, reaching a current price of just $1.26.
If you were unlucky (or crazy) enough to have YOLO’d your pension into $TSWCF at the top, your retirement money would have suffered a savage 86% drop in value.
That’s a surefire way to keep yourself trapped in the fiat mines for a few years longer…
Metaplanet
Metaplanet Inc, Japan’s leading Bitcoin treasury company, has a story that is almost a carbon copy. Holders reached peak euphoria as the stock surged almost 400% to $16 on May 21st, 2025.
But this euphoria was short-lived, as $MTPLF has now tumbled back down to just $3.62 today. Not quite as dramatic as $TSWCF or $NAKA, but still a massive drawdown of over 77%.
Again, if you found yourself placing bets on this stock during the peak of ‘Paper Bitcoin Summer,’ you might be left wondering if you spent a little too long in the sun.
MSTR
MicroStrategy, formerly known as Strategy, is the undisputed leader of the pack when it comes to treasury companies. Michael Saylor’s company first adopted their Bitcoin strategy as early as 2020, and so far it has paid off handsomely.
To date, the company has managed to acquire a mind-boggling 639,835 Bitcoin, and the company’s valuation has grown more than 6,500% since starting their accumulation strategy. Their first-mover advantage has enabled them to develop a huge lead over their would-be competitors, and it looks unlikely anyone will catch them unless big players like Apple or Google join the party with serious intent.
MicroStrategy’s performance over the past 5 years has been nothing short of spectacular. But even this giant hasn’t fared so well since the euphoria of ‘Paper Bitcoin Summer’ and is down close to 32% since its peak in July.
Performance vs Bitcoin
Since the peak of ‘Paper Bitcoin Summer’ between May and July this year, the Bitcoin treasury companies mentioned above have all significantly underperformed Bitcoin, which, since the end of May, has been treading water with a modest gain of just over 2%.
When the play was meant to be getting ‘exposure’ to Bitcoin, you have to imagine that some investors feel a little shortchanged since these stocks aren’t managing to keep pace with it.
And let’s take a look at how each has performed vs USD since their all-time highs (ATHs) earlier this year:
It looks like it wasn’t ‘Paper Bitcoin Summer’ after all. Despite Bitcoin’s relative strength and stability, these stocks have suffered heavy losses. If you invested in $NAKA at the top, you’re already waiting on a 10x gain from here just to break even.
Events like this really make you question how these stocks might perform if Bitcoin did enter another bear market. There might even be cause to question whether these leveraged positions are what end up creating a cascade of events that could lead to one.
Protecting Your Future
Now, it would be fair to argue that the figures presented in this article have been ‘cherry-picked’ to present a disparaging picture of Bitcoin Treasury Companies. After all, MSTR returns have actually outperformed BTC over the past 5 years:
Source: https://portfolioslab.com/tools/stock-comparison/MSTR/BTC-USD
But in defense of these ‘cherry-picked’ numbers, please bear in mind two things:
- They did call it ‘Paper Bitcoin Summer’…
- Most of these treasury companies were launched just months ago. MicroStrategy is the exception.
We also accept that most people aren’t necessarily choosing to invest in these stocks instead of Bitcoin. In a lot of cases, people are using money that’s already tied up in retirement funds they can’t access to buy Bitcoin with. They might wish they could buy Bitcoin with that money but can’t, and treasury companies look like the next best thing.
Nevertheless, we feel obligated to try and keep your focus on Bitcoin being the best bet at securing your future.
We have been conditioned to see pension funds and retirement accounts as synonymous with saving for our future—tax-advantaged little nest eggs that will one day ensure we have enough to get by in old age.
But Bitcoin has fundamentally changed the playing field. Tax-advantaged retirement accounts look positively antiquated compared to Bitcoin. Why would you keep paying into a pension fund that renders your money inaccessible for decades on end when you now have the option of saving for your future in Bitcoin at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) north of 50%, with no counterparty risk?
When you put it like that, the benefits of deferred taxation and employer contributions start to look a lot less attractive.
Not to mention, pension funds still operate within the broken financial system. Do you really believe they will survive the coming fiat apocalypse? All these investments are denominated in a currency that’s inflating its way to total collapse.
You might be buying stocks that give you some sort of ‘exposure’ to Bitcoin, but you can’t hedge the system from within the system.
Bitcoin gives you a way to save your future without having to interact with the broken and corrupt legacy system. You can prepare for your future free from counterparty risk, free from central bank debasement, and free from the whims of whatever deranged politician rises to power next.
Bitcoin lets you secure your future with an absolute certainty that has never existed before. That’s where your focus should be.
Bet on Certainty – The Bitcoin Way
If you have money already trapped in the legacy financial system and want to place a few bets on Bitcoin treasury companies, then fair enough. MSTR had excellent returns, and who’s to say some others won’t enjoy similar success.
But you might want to stop short of full-porting your entire retirement portfolio into a ten-man web design agency in the south of England that makes entry-level websites for just a few hundred pounds.
Because that might turn out to be just as crazy as it sounds…
At The Bitcoin Way, we operate exclusively on a Bitcoin standard but have no plans to go public and start trying to sell you $TBW stock. That’s because we’re quite content earning Bitcoin the old-fashioned way—through proof-of-work and providing a valuable service to our clients.
When you’re ready to learn how to build your own Bitcoin treasury and secure your future outside of the ailing financial system, our experts are ready to teach you the skills you need.
To get started, just book a book a free 30-minute consultation and we’ll show you how to bet on certainty with Bitcoin in full self-custody.